RECAP: AAPI Progressive Talks #3

 

With just a few months until the November election, AAPI Progressive Action hosted AAPI Progressive Talks #3: AAPI Polling & Research to better understand the AAPI community during the Covid-19 pandemic and leading up to the 2020 election. 

The panel included:

  • Janelle Wong (moderator)

  • Roshni Nedungadu, Partner at HIT Strategies

  • Nisha Jain, Vice President at GBAO Strategies

  • Karthick Ramakrishnan, Principal at CRW Strategy

Speakers shared key insights from their research on AAPI trends, attitudes, and opinions:

The AAPI Youth Vote

  • Generation Z and Millennial voters have surpassed the number Baby Boomers and previous generations in the presidential race, making the youth an essential demographic to tap into. 35% of eligible AAPI voters are Generation Z & Millennials, however with decreasing party loyalty, 41% of them identify as independents. 

  • Despite this, Roshni’s research indicates that the policy agenda for AAPI youth does align with the Democratic party. Policy areas such as background checks for guns, 12 weeks of paid maternity, and debt-free college are of the highest importance for young AAPI’s, all of which are being addressed by the democrats. Roshni also predicts shifts in the AAPI youth votes as universities, such as ones in California, continue with remote learning for the fall semester.

COVID-19 & the AAPI Vote

  • The majority of AAPI voters are worried about the economy as well as their own personal financial situations, however, they are mildly optimistic about the future. Compared to other ethnic groups, AAPI’s continue to view the current economy, their personal financial situations, and the future less optimistically than other ethnic groups. Pandemic concerns among AAPI’s are higher than the average voter, as issues regarding the economy and their family’s well being are both of utmost concern for these voters. 

  • AAPI voters expect more of the federal government and are leaning on state and local leaders. AAPI’s tend to disapprove of President Trump, more so than the overall voting population. His highest approval within the community was with the economy, and many AAPI voters in battleground districts felt Trump was handling the economy well before the pandemic. Governors are receiving higher praise with coronavirus efforts, and Nisha notes that the AAPI community are huge proponents of data and policy based on data, which is precisely what many governors are using and citing when putting stay-at-home and other pandemic orders into effect. 

  • AAPI Voters are turning to Democrats to help improve the health care system, jobs (especially for the middle class), coronavirus responses, and honesty with the American public. 

  • On views on China: public opinion has deteriorated, even among Democrats. The general public blame both China AND Trump for the pandemic and Nisha’s findings indicate that pushing back on Trump’s China argument may mean candidates need to acknowledge mistakes that were made by the Chinese government.

aapi polling best practices

Karthick Ramakrishnan answers questions regarding findings from polling within the AAPI voters.

  • One of the key things from past data that are relevant today is that young AAPI voters tend to vote less in midterm elections, so it is always difficult to decipher when the primaries are indicative of turnout in November. 

  • Additionally, immigration has consistently NOT been the top issue amongst AAPIs, rather it has been the economy, healthcare, and education. 

  • In terms of  voter turnout, Karthick reminds us that even in a presidential election year, house races are important as well. And with the coronavirus pandemic, vote by mail should be taken advantage of, with language assistance as well. He also mentions the potential nationalization of a concept called “ballot parties,” sessions to help voters navigate their ballots. 

  • On challenges in collecting data: 

    • Most polls of AAPIs are done in English, leaving out nearly 40% of AAPI voters. 

    • English-only interviews and other polling tend to overestimate Democratic party support 5-10%. 

    • It is important to keep these biases in mind and utilize larger sample sizes. It is important to be transparent of how samples are constructed, as the national picture for AAPI’s differs from battleground states because of high proportions of AAPI’s in California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Texas. 

  • Coming up with a likely voter model will be challenging with unforeseen barriers due to COVID-19 and other voter participation issues arise.

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Polling and research of the AAPI community is vital in understanding how we can best reach this critical group of voters, both in our messaging and in our outreach. While the AAPI community can be the margin of victory in November, we’ll need new data to effectively mobilize these voters in this quickly changing political landscape.

Visuals from this presentation are available here. 

 
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